British Chancellor of the Exchequer, Sterling rises

[Focus on today] Friday, February 14, 2020

 

① 15:00 Germany’s unseasonally adjusted annual GDP preliminary rate in the fourth quarter

② 18:00 Quarterly adjusted trade account for the Eurozone in December

③ 18:00 Euro area GDP annual rate correction in the fourth quarter

④ 18:00 quarterly rate of seasonally adjusted employment in the Eurozone in the fourth quarter

⑤ 21:30 U.S. January retail sales and import price index monthly rate

⑥ 22:15 US monthly industrial output rate in January

⑦ 23:00 U.S. December commercial inventory monthly rate

⑧ 23:00 U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in February

⑨ 00:45 Fed Meister speaks

⑩ 02:00 Total oil drilling in the week to February 14

Fundamentals:

 

[British Chancellor of the Exchequer faces uncertainties in economic policy] After the British Chancellor of the Exchequer Sajid Javid resigned due to a dispute with Prime Minister Johnson, British economic policy is facing doubts. The Prime Minister’s office cannot confirm whether the budget will be announced on March 11 as planned, and whether the government will also comply with the financial rules announced by Javid-balancing daily income and expenditure within three years. The Prime Minister’s Office appointed Javid’s deputy Rishi Sunak as the new Chancellor of the Exchequer. Sterling rose on Thursday and British government bonds fell on speculation that the UK Treasury may increase fiscal expenditures after the change of command.

 

[European Central Bank chief economist says monetary stimulus measures are still working] European Central Bank Executive Committee member Lian En said in an interview on Thursday that the low interest rate stage of the euro area is “temporary”, such as currencies with negative interest rates Stimulus measures are still working, but fiscal policy makers can do more; uncertainty over the UK-Eurozone trade agreement is part of the uncertainty that weighs on the European economy, but the UK is “not big enough” to become a Eurozone The driving force of the future.

 

[Fed maintains $ 60 billion monthly Treasury bill purchase rate]

 

[U.S. Senate passes a resolution restricting Trump’s easy use of Iranian forces]

According to CCTV, the U.S. Senate passed a resolution of 55 to 45 on the 13th. The resolution required that President Trump not order an air strike on Iran without first obtaining Congressional approval.

 

[IEA cuts crude oil demand growth to a 9-year low]

The IEA monthly report shows that due to the new coronavirus epidemic, the IEA reduced its forecasted growth in oil demand in 2020 by 365,000 barrels / day to 82.5 barrels / day, a new low since 2011. In addition, the monthly report shows that the global crude oil supply decreased by 800,000 barrels per day to 100.5 million barrels per day in January. It is expected that the crude oil output of OPEC countries in the first quarter will decrease to 27.2 million barrels per day.

Technical side:

XAUUSD:

(Golden 1H chart)

Looking at the gold 4-hour chart, closed with the reverse hammer pattern. The MACD red column shortened, the market hovered high in 1-hour chart. The pressure at the top of the box was relatively large, and it was close to short.

Resistance level: 1578

Support level: 1570

Operating strategy: short near 1577, target 1571, stop loss 1580

EURUSD:

(EURUSD 1H chart)

From the 1-hour chart of the euro against the US dollar , the moving averages are bear and the market is very weak and continues to sell high.

Resistance level: 1.0855

Support level: 1.0810

Operating strategy: short around 1.0850, target 1.0810, stop loss 1.0875

GBPUSD:

(GBPUSD 1H chart)

In the daily chart of the pound against the US dollar, after breaking the new low, it continually closed with bullish candlestick. Structurally, it would go up to 1.320. In 1-hour chart trend line is upward, and long after drawing back.

Resistance level: 1.31

Support level: 1.3010

Operation strategy: long near 1.3010, target 1.31, stop loss 1.2970

USDJPY:

(USDJPY 1H chart)

Looking at the USDJPY daily chart, the market was suppressed twice near the previous high, and the pressure above was strong. In 1-hour chart, the market fell below the uptrend line, fluctuating at a high level, and fsell high.

Resistance level: 110

Support level: 109.60

Operation strategy: short around 110, target 109.60, stop loss 110.25

USOIL:

(USOIL 1H chart)

Looking at the US crude oil daily chart, the MACD has the golden cross. In 1-hour chart it shows that the market is running above the uptrend line. Long after drawing back.

Resistance level: 51.9

Support level: 50.90

Operation strategy:  long around 50.9, target 51.9, stop loss 50.5

*************** Notes for trading **************

1. Follow the trend and keep in mind of risk control

2. Entry can be added or minused by 5 pips, exit can be added or minused by 5 points

3. It is recommended to take half of the profit after 50 pips of profit, and the rest position with stop loss of entry.

4. Orders that arrive at the entry point before 12 pm are valid, and subsequent orders are invalid. (Unless specified)

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(The above personal strategy is written based on the objective and independent principles. It is for reference only and does not represent any direct operational advice to investors. Investors will be responsible for the profits and losses of the market.

 

MYFXSchool Analyst: Michael

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