The epidemic hit the US economy hardly and cannot be recovered within ten years

[Focus on today] Tuesday, June 2, 2020

 

① 12:30 RBA announces interest rate resolution

② 14:00 UK Nationwide house price index monthly rate in May

③ 14:30 Swiss retail sales annual rate in April

④ 16:30 British central bank mortgage loan approval in April

⑤ 04:30 API crude stocks from the US to May 29

Fundamentals:

 

[OPEC basically confirms that the oil production assessment meeting will be advanced to June 4] Sources on Monday said that OPEC will advance the oil production assessment meeting to June 4. The analysis pointed out that OPEC will advance the time of the evaluation meeting, which may have reached an agreement to extend production cuts to some extent. OPEC and Russia are currently discussing the extension of 1-2 months.

 

[Russian President Putin discusses OPEC+ agreement with Trump to support oil market development]

The Kremlin announced on Monday that Putin and Trump believed on the phone that the multilateral agreement reached with the active support of the leaders of the two countries has brought about a gradual recovery of oil demand and a stabilization of prices. The United States did not formally join the agreement, but Trump helped facilitate the agreement, and because of low oil prices and weak demand, US shale oil producers shut down oil wells, resulting in a substantial decline in US production.

 

[Russian oil and natural gas condensate production decreased by about 2 million barrels per day in May]

According to sources, Russia’s oil and gas condensate production in May was 9.39 million barrels/day, while the average output in April was 11.35 million barrels/day. In addition, the premium of Russian Ural crude oil to Brent crude oil has reached the highest level since 1990. The Ural crude oil sold to Northwest Europe is US$2.3 per barrel, and the Ural crude oil sold to Southern Europe is US$2.8 per barrel.

 

[US May ISM manufacturing PMI breaks from 11-year low]

The US ISM manufacturing PMI recorded 43.1 in May, higher than market expectations of 43, and also higher than the previous value of 41.5. US stocks were boosted accordingly. The agency commented that this is by far the strongest sign that the worst period of economic recession has passed with the re-opening of businesses, but because the unemployment rate is still high, it may take years to recover from the epidemic crisis.

 

[CBO: The epidemic will reduce US GDP by 15.7 trillion and cannot be recovered within ten years]

The US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said that by fiscal year 2030, the outbreak will reduce real economic output (inflation-adjusted nominal GDP) by 3% from the preliminary economic estimate before the outbreak in January. In the next 10 years, the new crown epidemic may result in a reduction in economic activity of about US$7.9 trillion. The reduced nominal GDP is expected to be US$15.7 trillion, or 5.3%, which is lower than the original forecast.

 

[Results of the three-phase trial of redoxivir announced: 65% of patients may show improvement]

The Gilead Science Program submits all data within the next few weeks. Research shows that patients in the 5-day redoxil treatment group have a 65% increased chance of clinical improvement on day 11; but the 10-day course of treatment does not reach statistical significance Sex.

 

[Johnson plans to improve the political agenda to deal with Britain’s worst economic recession in 300 years]

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson plans to reset his government agenda and will make an important speech and financial statement to prepare the UK for the new reality after the New Coronavirus epidemic. According to people familiar with the matter, the British Chancellor of the Exchequer, Sunark, is working on plans to draw up the government’s options for boosting the economy after withdrawing huge financial support in the coming months, which may include higher income taxes or national insurance, and corporate taxes may be raised.

Technical side:

XAUUSD:

(Golden 1H chart)

Looking at the gold one-hour chart, the moving averages are long and 60 antennas form a strong support. If you step back on the line, you can continue to do more.

Pressure level: 1750

Support: 1730

Operation strategy: go long near 1731, target 1750, stop loss 1726

EURUSD:

(EURUSD 1H chart)

From the daily view of the euro against the US dollar , the price reached a new high, the bottom continued to rise, the market center of gravity continued to move upward, the 1-hour high sideways box oscillated, and the bottom of the box continued to do more.

Pressure level: 1.1180

Support level: 1.1090

Operation strategy: go long near 1.1092, target 1.1150, stop loss 1.1062

GBPUSD:

(GBPUSD 1H chart)

From the daily line of the pound against the US dollar, Changyang broke the downtrend line, the market is very strong, 1 hour

Run above the uptrend line and step back on the line to do more.

Pressure level: 1.2600

Support level: 1.2430

Operation strategy: Long near 1.2430, target 1.2520, stop loss 1.2390

USDCAD:

(USDCAD 1H chart)

Judging from the daily line of USD/CAD, the long-yin breaks through the position and the bears are strong. The 1-hour chart is back-pressured by the downtrend line, and if the counter-draw line continues to go short.

Pressure level: 1.3640

Support level: 1.3480

Operation strategy: shorting near 1.3638, target 1.3500, stop loss 1.3680

USOIL:

(USOIL 1H chart)

From the US crude oil daily chart, the market stood firm on the 5th line after breaking the downtrend line, and the bulls are ready to go. After 1 hour yesterday, they quickly pulled up after the probe. There are two possibilities next. The second is to step back near yesterday’s low and make a comeback.

Pressure level: 37

Support level: 34.3

Operation strategy: go long near 34.65, target 36.5, stop loss 34.15

*************** Notes for trading **************

1. Follow the trend and keep in mind of risk control

2. Entry can be added or minused by 5 pips, exit can be added or minused by 5 points

3. It is recommended to take half of the profit after 50 pips of profit, and the rest position with stop loss of entry.

4. Orders that arrive at the entry point before 12 pm are valid, and subsequent orders are invalid. (Unless specified)

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(The above personal strategy is written based on the objective and independent principles. It is for reference only and does not represent any direct operational advice to investors. Investors will be responsible for the profits and losses of the market.

 

MYFXSchool Analyst: Michael

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