Russia implements production cuts, Japan unsealed, oil prices will reach new highs

[Focus on today] Friday, May 22, 2020

 

① 14:00 German Gfk Consumer Confidence Index in June

② 14:00 Swiss trade account in April

③ 18:00 UK CBI retail sales difference in May

④ 21:00 US monthly rate of FHFA house price index in March

⑤ 21:00 Annual rate of housing price index in the 20 largest cities in the United States in March

⑥ 22:00 US May Consultative Council Consumer Confidence Index

⑦ 22:00 Annualized total number of new home sales in the United States in April

⑧ 22:30 United States May Dallas Federal Reserve Business Activity Index

⑨ 01:00 Fed Kashkali participated in the online meeting

⑩ 05:00 Bank of Canada Governor and Deputy Governor deliver a speech

Fundamentals:

 

[IEA says oil demand has not yet peaked and will rebound from a low point in 2021]

International Energy Agency (IEA) director Fatih Birol said on Monday that world oil demand has not yet reached its peak, and it is expected that sooner or later oil consumption will return to pre-crisis levels and subsequently exceed that level. Birol said that continued economic recovery and low oil prices are likely to bring global oil demand back to its original level, or even exceed it.

 

[Russian Ministry of Energy says production cuts have reached OPEC + target level]

The Russian Ministry of Energy expects global oil demand to recover in May, and the current surplus is expected to be 7 million barrels per day to 12 million barrels per day. The Russian Ministry of Energy stated that Russia ’s output has reached the OPEC + target level and hopes that the oil market will reach a balance between June and July.

 

[Russia temporarily bans fuel imports from 25th to October 1st of this year]

On the 25th, the Russian government signed a government order to temporarily ban the import of various fuels including gasoline, diesel, and kerosene from now until October 1 this year. This move is to ensure the energy security of the Russian Federation and the stability of the fuel market in Russia. At the same time, the Russian government also stipulated that the mandatory sales of petroleum products through the exchange from April to June this year will be reduced by half, and the mandatory oil sales index will be reduced from 10% to 5%.

 

[WHO says it may usher in the second wave or second peak]

Michael Ryan, the WHO health emergency project leader, said that there is no second wave of the epidemic, and it is now in the first wave. According to data from Central and South America, Africa, and South Asia, the epidemic is on the rise. He emphasized that the epidemic situation may suddenly rise at any time, and it cannot be assumed that it will continue to decline, and there may be a second peak.

 

[Germany’s economy contracted by 2.2% in the first quarter and officially fell into recession]

According to data released by the German Federal Statistical Office on Monday, due to the impact of the new crown epidemic and the blockade measures that began in mid-March, gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 2.2% month-on-month, the second consecutive quarter of contraction, marking the official German economy Fall into recession.

Technical side:

XAUUSD:

(Golden 1H chart)

From the gold one-hour chart, the market failed to continue to fall after stepping back on the lower trend line. The support below is still relatively strong. It broke through the downward trend line after opening low in early trading today, and the probability of rebounding if the trend line is not broken.

Pressure level: 1744

Support: 1725

Operation strategy: Long near 1727, target 1733, stop loss 1723

EURUSD:

(EURUSD 1H chart)

Judging from the daily line of the euro against the US dollar , the Doji closes and the draw is long and short. The 1-hour pressure is in the central area, and the bottom of the anti-draw box is short.

Pressure level: 1.0950

Support level: 1.0880

Operation strategy: shorting near 1.0937, target 1.0887, stop loss 1.0967

GBPUSD:

(GBPUSD 1H chart)

From the 4-hour chart of the pound against the US dollar, the Dayang line is pulled up, and the MACD golden fork breaks through the downtrend line in 1 hour.

Pressure level: 1.2280

Support level: 1.2200

Operation strategy: Long near 1.2200, target 1.2270, stop loss 1.2160

USOIL:

(USOIL 4H chart)

From the perspective of the US crude oil daily, the market once again stood firm on the 5-day line and maintained its strength. It operated in the ascending channel for 4 hours. The moving averages are long, and there is a possibility of reaching a new high.

Pressure level: 37

Support level: 33.7

Operation strategy: Long near 33.8, target 36, stop loss 33.3

US30:

(US30 1H chart)

Judging from the 1-hour chart of the US Dow, it breaks through the previous high, and the moving averages are long. The market is quite strong. If you step back on the breakthrough point, it will constitute 3 buys and do more callbacks.

Pressure level: 25600

Support: 24780

Operation strategy: do more near 24800, target 25400, stop loss 24700

*************** Notes for trading **************

1. Follow the trend and keep in mind of risk control

2. Entry can be added or minused by 5 pips, exit can be added or minused by 5 points

3. It is recommended to take half of the profit after 50 pips of profit, and the rest position with stop loss of entry.

4. Orders that arrive at the entry point before 12 pm are valid, and subsequent orders are invalid. (Unless specified)

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(The above personal strategy is written based on the objective and independent principles. It is for reference only and does not represent any direct operational advice to investors. Investors will be responsible for the profits and losses of the market.

 

MYFXSchool Analyst: Michael

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