Work resuming and oil reduction help the oil price rebound strongly

[Focus on today] Monday, May 18, 2020

 

① 07:00 Fed Chairman Powell is interviewed

② 09:30 Monthly report of residential prices in 70 large and medium cities in China

③ 22:00 United States May NAHB housing market index

Fundamentals:

 

[U.S. terror data continues to set new record lows in April]

The data released on Friday night showed that the monthly rate of retail sales in the United States in April recorded -16.4%, which was a record low, which was expected to be -12%, and the previous value was revised to -8.4%.

 

[The US House of Representatives passes the $ 3 trillion economic bailout bill]

The US House of Representatives voted to pass a total of US $ 3 trillion of the New Crown Outbreak Economic Relief Act, which includes distributing about US $ 1 trillion to state and local governments, continuing to distribute cash to residents, providing risk subsidies to first-line workers, and extending additional unemployment benefits to In January next year, 75 billion US dollars will be allocated for virus detection. The bill may not be passed in the Senate. The White House said that even if the bill is passed by the Senate, Trump will veto it.

 

 

 

[The Fed warns that the new crown epidemic will lead to increased US financial vulnerability]

The US Federal Reserve issued a “Financial Stability Report” on the 15th, warning that the new crown epidemic has caused the vulnerability of US financial institutions to rise. The report pointed out that in the short term, the epidemic will have an impact on the US economy and the global economy. At the same time, the debt of US companies is high, and the severe contraction of economic activity and the decline in income have weakened the solvency of companies. In the medium term, the likelihood of financial institutions suffering losses will increase.

 

[OPEC is cautiously optimistic that the oil crisis is over]

OPEC Secretary General Barkindu said on Friday that OPEC + countries are rapidly reducing production and are committed to fully implementing the production reduction agreement. OPEC is cautiously optimistic that the oil crisis is over. OPEC + will consider all options for reducing production in June, but it is too early to say that OPEC + may continue to reduce output by 9.7 million barrels / day after June.

 

[Buffett chopped off more than 80% of Goldman Sachs in the first quarter and reduced its holdings in bank aviation stocks]

Buffett’s latest Berkshire Hathaway 13F report shows that it increased its holdings of United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, PNC in the first quarter; reduced holdings of JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, General Motors, Southwest Airlines, American Airlines; clearance traveler insurance, Phillips 66, of which the position against Goldman Sachs fell sharply by 84%.

Technical side:

XAUUSD:

(Golden 1H chart)

From the perspective of the golden daily chart, it is the fifth day with bullish candlestick after breaking the triangle pattern. The 5 waves finally broke out. The target pointed to 1795 of 2012. It is supported by the upward trend line on 1H chart. We can buy it when it pulls back.

Pressure level: 1780

Support level: 1745

Operation strategy: Long near 1745, target 1775, stop loss 1740

EURUSD:

(EURUSD 1H chart)

From the daily chart of the euro against the US dollar, it still has no obvious direction. The 1-hour chart shows that the market fluctuates in a triangle range. When the market is not obvious, we should trade conservatively.

Pressure level: 1.0870

Support level: 1.0790

Operation strategy: Long near 1.0795, target 1.0835, stop loss 1.0770

GBPUSD:

(GBPUSD 1H chart)

Looking at the daily chart of the pound against the US dollar, a strong bear candlestick broke through the support level and the moving average is bear also. It is pressured by the downtrend line in 1H chart. And we can short after pulling back.

Pressure level: 1.2170

Support level: 1.2070

Operating strategy: Short selling near 1.2170, target 1.2070, stop loss 1.2210

USOIL:

(USOIL 1H chart)

From the US crude oil daily chart, the market went bullish after the consolidation. But we must pay attention to the pressure of the downward trend line above. We can long when it steps back on the uptrend lin in 1H chart.

Pressure level: 31.4

Support level: 29.4

Operating strategy: Go long near 29.4, target 31, stop loss 28.9

US30:

(US30 1H chart)

From the US Dow’s daily chart, the market broke through 5-days moving average line. It broke the last high in 1H chart and turned into an upward direction. If it pulls back to trend line, we can long it.

Pressure level: 24020

Support: 23720

Operation strategy: go long near 23710, target 24000, stop loss 23660

*************** Notes for trading **************

1. Follow the trend and keep in mind of risk control

2. Entry can be added or minused by 5 pips, exit can be added or minused by 5 points

3. It is recommended to take half of the profit after 50 pips of profit, and the rest position with stop loss of entry.

4. Orders that arrive at the entry point before 12 pm are valid, and subsequent orders are invalid. (Unless specified)

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(The above personal strategy is written based on the objective and independent principles. It is for reference only and does not represent any direct operational advice to investors. Investors will be responsible for the profits and losses of the market.

 

MYFXSchool Analyst: Michael

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