US 2 trillion stimulus plan will be introduced, bullish stock market

[Focus on today] Thursday, March 26, 2020

 

① To be confirmed G20 leaders special summit to cope with new crown pneumonia

② 15:00 German Gfk consumer confidence index in April

③ 15:00 Monthly rate of retail sales in the UK after February seasonal adjustment

④ 20:00 Bank of England announces interest rate resolution and meeting minutes

⑤ 20:30 U.S. to the beginning of the week of March 21

⑥ 20:30 Final value of annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the fourth quarter of the United States

⑦ 20:30 U.S. fourth quarter final value of actual personal consumption expenditure

⑧ 20:30 U.S. core PCE price index annualized quarterly final value in the fourth quarter

⑨ 22:30 U.S. to the week of March 20 EIA natural gas inventory

⑩ 04:30, the Fed announces its weekly balance sheet

Fundamentals:

 

[EIA report: Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 1.6 million barrels to 455.4 million barrels] The United States as of March 20 EIA gasoline stocks fell by 1.537 million barrels, refined oil stocks decreased by 678,000 barrels; US domestic crude oil production last week Reduced 100,000 barrels to 13 million barrels / day; except for strategic reserves, commercial crude oil imports were 6.117 million barrels / day last week, a decrease of 422,000 barrels / day from the previous week; U.S. crude oil exports fell 528,000 barrels / day to 3.85 million barrels per day Barrels / day.

 

[The U.S. Senate has reached an agreement before voting on a bipartisan stimulus plan. ] At noon on Wednesday, news said that the U.S. Senate reached an agreement on the bipartisan stimulus plan. The total value of US stimulus measures is more than $ 2 trillion, of which $ 250 billion is for unemployment assistance and $ 130 billion is to assist hospitals. The US stimulus agreement provides about $ 50 billion for the aviation industry.

The Senate plans to vote on the economic rescue plan on the 25th, but near the ballot, several Republican senators asked for amendments to some of the provisions. They believe that the bill’s provisions on unemployment protection are too generous, which is equivalent to encouraging unemployment in disguise.

 

[Bernanke: US economy will experience a “very severe” recession]

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday that the economic disruption caused by the coronavirus epidemic was more of a “blizzard” than a depression. He expected the US economy to decline “very sharply” but also to recover “quite quickly”.

 

[European Central Bank may restart OMT debt purchase plan] Insiders said that insiders of the European Central Bank are widely supported to restart the European Central Bank ’s direct currency transaction (OMT) debt purchase plan if necessary to help the euro zone economy hit by the new crown pneumonia epidemic

 

[Overseas markets start to determine the advantages of A-share value investment highlighting] After the global stock market rebounded on the 24th, Asian stock markets rebounded across the board on the 25th. Securities analysts believe that the Federal Reserve’s stimulus policy will boost market confidence in the short term. In the medium and long term, because the epidemic situation has not been completely alleviated and market risks have not been relieved, investors need to be cautious to make a bottom note and pay attention to the increasingly prominent value investment opportunities of A shares.

Technical side:

XAUUSD:

(Golden 1H chart)

From the gold 1-hour chart, it has two upward trend lines constitute a strong support area. If the market steps back to this area, the probability of rebound is greater.

Pressure level: 1625

Support level: 1568

Operation strategy: long near 1567, target 1620, stop loss 1557

EURUSD:

(EURUSD 1H chart)

From the 1-hour chart of the euro against the US dollar , the market broke the downtrend line. We can long when it pulls back to the box

Pressure level: 1.10

Support level: 1.0855

Operation strategy: long near 1.0855, target 1.0970, stop loss 1.0815

GBPUSD:

(GBPUSD 1H chart)

Looking at the 1-hour chart of GBP against USD, the moving averages are bullish, the market’s center of gravity is gradually moving upwards. Let’s long it when pulls back near the uptrend line.

Pressure level: 1.1970

Support level: 1.1720

Operating strategy: long at 1.1720, target 1.1970, stop loss 1.1 680

USDJPY:

(USDJPY 1H chart)

Judging from the 1-hour chart of USD / JPY, the wedge has finally ended, the MACD green column has strengthened, and the anti-pull continues to be short.

Pressure level: 111.10

Support level: 109.5-108.5

Operating strategy: short at 111.10, target 109.5, stop loss 111.75

USOIL:

(USOIL 1H chart)

From the 1-hour chart of U.S. crude oil, the market fluctuates sideways in the box. This trend feels like suing time to change for space.

Pressure level: 25

Support level: 23

Operation strategy: long near 23.2, target 25, stop loss 22.8

*************** Notes for trading **************

1. Follow the trend and keep in mind of risk control

2. Entry can be added or minused by 5 pips, exit can be added or minused by 5 points

3. It is recommended to take half of the profit after 50 pips of profit, and the rest position with stop loss of entry.

4. Orders that arrive at the entry point before 12 pm are valid, and subsequent orders are invalid. (Unless specified)

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(The above personal strategy is written based on the objective and independent principles. It is for reference only and does not represent any direct operational advice to investors. Investors will be responsible for the profits and losses of the market.

 

MYFXSchool Analyst: Michael

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