Crude oil hits 18-year low, value investment bottoms out

[Focus on today] Thursday, March 19, 2020


① 07:30 Annual rate of core CPI in Japan in February

② 08:30 Australian seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in February

③ 11:30 RBA announces monetary policy measures

④ 13:00 Australian Federal Reserve Chairman Lowe speaks

⑤ 15:00 Swiss trade account in February

⑥ 16:30 Swiss National Bank announces interest rate resolution

⑦ 20:30 U.S. fourth quarter current account

⑧ 20:30 U.S. to unemployment claims for the week beginning March 14

⑨ 20:30 U.S. March Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

⑩ 22:00 U.S. February Advisory Council Leading Indicator Month Rate

⑪ 22:30 U.S. to EIA natural gas inventory for the week of March 13



[EIA report: U.S. commercial crude inventories except strategic reserves increased by 19.54 million barrels to 453.7 million barrels last week] U.S. EIA gasoline stocks fell by 6.18 million barrels and refined oil stocks fell by 2.94 million barrels in the week to March 13 Domestic crude oil production increased by 100,000 barrels to 13.1 million barrels per day, and US domestic crude oil production once again rose to historical highs. Excluding strategic reserves, commercial crude oil imports last week were 6.539 million barrels per day, an increase of 127,000 barrels per day over the previous week; US crude oil exports increased by 968,000 barrels per day to 4.378 million barrels per day last week.


[Government of the French Central Bank: There is no doubt about the implementation of helicopter-style money-spending in Europe, and it is prepared to temporarily favor the debt of some countries]


[US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said that if the Trump plan is implemented, the United States will not face 20% unemployment rate]


[NYSE: All electronic trading will begin when the market opens next Monday, and the stock and options trading floor will be temporarily closed. Trading and supervision of all listed stocks on the NYSE will continue without interruption]


[7769 confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the United States]

According to CCTV, as of 19:00 EST on the 18th (7:00 pm on the 19th Beijing time), a total of 7,769 confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia have occurred in the United States, of which 1/3 was in New York; a total of 118 died. The first congressman to be diagnosed with an infection in the United States has voted in Congress.


[European chief Brexit negotiator Barnier: it is possible to reach a bold and comprehensive agreement with Britain]

Technical side:


(Golden 1H chart)

From the 1-hour chart of gold, the downward trend line at the top is counter-pressured, the fifth wave of the wave structure goes down, and the probability of hitting a new low of 1451 is high.

Pressure level: 1480

Support level: 1451

Operation strategy: short around 1480, target 1452, stop loss 1485


(EURUSD 1H chart)

Judging from the 1-hour chart of the euro against the US dollar , the moving averages are short, and the market may have to go to the previous low of the daily level, and anti-short.

Pressure level: 1.0950

Support level: 1.0810

Operating strategy: short around 1.0950, target 1.0850, stop loss 1.0980


(GBPUSD 1H chart)

Judging from the daily line of the pound against the US dollar, it fell below the record low. After the sharp fall last night, the market entered a break and it was still at high altitudes without changing the trend.

Pressure level: 1.1650

Support level: 1.1450

Operating strategy: short at around 1.1640, target 1.1500 , stop loss 1.1680


(USDJPY 1H chart)

From the 1-hour chart of USD / JPY, the moving average is long, the market is running above the trend line, and it is long on the line.

Pressure level: 110

Support level: 107.6

Operation strategy: Go long near 107.6, target 109, stop loss 107.2


(USOIL 1H chart)

From the monthly chart of the US crude oil, the market has plummeted, hitting a new low of 18 years. At present, the market has reached the important support of the lower edge of the triangle. Crude oil may have bottomed out. The price of oil at 20 US dollars per barrel is much cheaper than water. The bottom of the price investment has arrived, around 21 can be gradually bought in batches, long-term view of 40 US dollars, but the position must be controlled.

Pressure level: 24

Support level: 20.5

Operation strategy: Go long near 20.6, target 23.8, stop loss 20

*************** Notes for trading **************

1. Follow the trend and keep in mind of risk control

2. Entry can be added or minused by 5 pips, exit can be added or minused by 5 points

3. It is recommended to take half of the profit after 50 pips of profit, and the rest position with stop loss of entry.

4. Orders that arrive at the entry point before 12 pm are valid, and subsequent orders are invalid. (Unless specified)



(The above personal strategy is written based on the objective and independent principles. It is for reference only and does not represent any direct operational advice to investors. Investors will be responsible for the profits and losses of the market.


MYFXSchool Analyst: Michael

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